Guest Post: Double-Dutch Diplomacy

Ed. Note: The following is another guest post by Michael Rohrs. The views expressed are his own.

President Obama and his administration have heretofore taken a double-dutch approach to diplomacy; that is to stand just outside the turbine and gauge the tempo; pick a calculated spot and jump in; do work, jump out, and circle back for another pass. For the most part, they have done so adeptly and eloquently. Three weeks following his address in Cairo, however, the President seems to have gotten a little tripped and tangled.

• 24 June- President Obama reinstates the U.S. Ambassador to Syria—A post that has been strategically vacant for four years.
• 25 June- The White House rescinds its invitation to Iranian diplomats to attend Fourth of July celebrations worldwide (presumably held at American Embassies).
• 26 June- Ahmadinejad publicly demands an apology from President Obama for interfering in Iranian affairs of state.

The United States is in a heated diplomatic playoff with Iran. We know this. President Obama’s strategic reinstatement of the American Ambassador to Syria on Wednesday was a straight-steal. As the Post reported, “The loss of U.S. diplomatic leverage in the region,” caused by the American response to the Syrian government’s complicity in the 2005 assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, “has left a vacuum filled in large part by Iran.” It is no coincidence that because politics has forced President Obama to be careful regarding the contentious Iranian election, we’re trying to regain some diplomatic high-ground by climbing up the backside of the hill. The problem is we’re doing so clumsily.

Yesterday, the State department “disinvited” Iranian envoys from partaking in its Independence Day dissipation—a diplomatic disaster akin to taking your baseball and going home because they made you play right field. A tantrum only amplified by the White House’s self-deprecating quip, "July 4th allows us to celebrate the freedom and the liberty we enjoy…Freedom of speech. Freedom of religion. Freedom to assemble peacefully. Freedom of the press. So I don't think it's surprising that nobody's signed up to come."

Even if extending invitations to celebrate our (and the rest of the world’s) freedom is standard diplomatic practice, American diplomacy operates best when we’re calling the pitches. As George Orwell espoused as his sixth and final rule of writing, we should have broken any of these rules before doing anything outright barbarous. By offering up our most sacred regalia to a base body politic, we undercut our axiomatic authority. Remember, we’re dealing with no less than half of the official state sponsors of terrorism. I’m all for extending an open hand, but you don’t invite vegans to a bull roast.

Let’s hope the President regains his diplomatic rhythm and finds his double-dutch dexterity. We need to be playing by American league rules; especially on Independence Day.

Keep an Eye on Iran Today

Today is the ultimate "take out the trash day." Yesterday Michael Jackson and Farrah Fawcett died, Shaq was traded and the NBA draft took place. Any possible attention left over for politics and international events is still taken up by Mark Sanford's Argentinian adventures. The only possible world news to creep in would be President Obama's meeting with Angela Merkel. In other words, now would be a perfect time for Iran to stage a Tiananmen style attempt to crush any protests. Let's hope they don't think the same thing, and keep watching to make sure they don't.

Walking the Iranian Balance Beam

Lots of good stuff to read on Iran, perhaps too much... much like clicking on the #Iranelection feed on Twitter. So far I think President Obama is doing an excellent job of walking the fine line between expressing support for democracy and not being seen as meddling or taking sides.

First read the op-ed in the New York Times from an anonymous Iranian student, who states that all our outside opinions, beliefs, and assumptions about Iran are likely to be at best outdated and at worst dead wrong. As both the student and Walt point out, even if a recount or re-vote occurs and Mousavi is declared the winner that doesn't necessarily mean a more pro-U.S. government or one that will stop pursuing nuclear weapons.

Also check out Tom Ricks' post about how the current situation reminds him of the aborted Hungarian revolution in 1956. Although my memories of Budapest are entirely from history books and The Company I had the same thought, and would hate to egg on the protests into a revolution with veiled promises of support only to leave the protesters holding their limp... lets just say empty handed and alone.

Piecing Together the Story From Iran

I spent much of the past weekend at the Truman National Security Project's mid-annual conference (yes, two major conferences in one week). As part of the conference we had a tabletop exercise where we played members of the National Security Council debating ways to work toward President Obama's stated goal of getting to zero nuclear weapons. The event included fictional, though realistic, news inputs, such as an announcement that Kim Jong-Il had had another stroke, but this being a modern age people were also able to get real news, like the announcement that Iranian President Ahmadinejad was declared the winner of Friday's elections. A bit surreal to mix real and fake news like that.

I mention the experience because of the different sources of news flowing in from Iran. I was sufficiently dissatisfied by the mainstream media reports (this video is one of the best) to join Twitter (@robinjwalker) in hopes of some more news from different sources.

The only large-scale protests I've been in the middle of that turned violent was the 1999 WTO protests in Seattle, in what was essentially the communications stone age. I remember how scary and disorienting the whole experience was, not knowing if anarchists, riot police with tear gas, or just a wall of protesters running from one of the above was coming around any given corner. I wonder if Twitter, YouTube and the like make it any less confusing, or if the fire hose of information, some good and some bad, makes it just as confusing.