tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-43115976771770276802024-03-13T17:49:47.320-04:00Smart InfluenceA discussion on foreign policy, security, South Asia, power, and world eventsRobin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.comBlogger153125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-62557065104223332802010-01-27T11:07:00.005-05:002010-01-27T11:36:41.187-05:00An iSpeech To Change The World<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">A powerful and mysterious man steps in front of an audience of devoted followers, skeptics, and critics to deliver a speech that could change the world, create jobs, save industries, or all come crashing down around him. Both Steve Jobs and Barack Obama have big tasks today, and my advice for both of them is the same: manage expectations, show your work, be strong, and get a win. </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Both speeches will anger some people, primarily for what they leave out. They will have features people won't expect. Some people will love it, no matter what, and others will hate it.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Apple's iPad, iTab, or whatever it ends up being called won't cure cancer (though ironically it might </span></span><a href="http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/factsheet/Risk/cellphones"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">contribute to it</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">). It might revolutionize the printing and journalism industries, though it might not. Jobs needs to tell us what it is and what it can be, but also what it is not. Whatever features it does not include (removable battery, forward facing camera) he should tell us why not. It should be evident what it does better than every device that has tried to do that task first, and he should hammer that point home and get a win.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">The President needs to do the same thing. He is already getting based this week, especially from the Left, for a spending freeze very similar to that proposed by John McCain during the presidential debates. He's considered to be on the ropes after our new Republican/tea party overlord Scott Brown became the 41st senator. People are mad because they don't have jobs, the healthcare bill hasn't passed, the healthcare bill might pass, the government is spending too much money and running a deficit, they haven't received enough government money, etc. They will be mad at the things that are included, and mad if things like ending Don't Ask Don't Tell are not included after rumors said it would be. The president needs to lay out what can be accomplished in a way that makes it difficult for Congress not to work with him. He needs to show what he has done, and why he has not done more on other topics. He needs to seriously smack someone down and get a definite win in almost any arena. I almost hope a Republican does jeer him during the speech so that he can pull a "</span></span><a href="http://www.hulu.com/watch/102972/saturday-night-live-the-rock-obama"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">The Rock Obama</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">." Nothing succeeds like success, and if the President wants to bring people back to his side he needs to take strong leadership on more issues. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Foreign policy probably will not be mentioned very much tonight, because jobs and the economy are first on people's minds. George H. W. Bush became a foreign policy focused president after facing domestic problems, and then became a one term president. If President Obama doesn't have wins in some arena he won't have the political capital for any arena, foreign or domestic. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Perhaps this time next year we'll all be watching and live-Tweeting President Obama's State of the Union on our iTab's, not able to imagine life without them. Perhaps Obama will also have approval ratings in the 70s after a wildly successful year continuing to bring us back from the depths of the Bush years. An Obama presidency in the abstract was as wonderful and open to possibility as the iTab has been for the past few months. People could imagine anything was possible. Delivering in the real world is a lot harder. But show what you have done, where it might still be possible to go, and how to get there and a lot more people will agree and help the process. </span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-89016193245976360842010-01-13T17:42:00.003-05:002010-01-13T18:38:52.017-05:00Google and Corporate Soft Power<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Underneath today's headlines of horror and destruction in Haiti (when was the last time something good happened to Haiti?) are two stories of courage, and in both cases the courage seems to be self-serving. In the first case Conan O'Brian told NBC to stick its schedule change where the sun don't shine, for which he seems to be universally praised, received great free publicity, and will probably end up with a better deal from Fox. Personally I can't imagine watching anything other than Stephen Colbert at 11:30, but it was a good and courageous move on Conan's part. </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Google announced - on its </span></span><a href="http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/new-approach-to-china.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">blog</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> - that it would no longer censor Google search results in China, risking having to close Google.cn and lose the potentially lucrative growing Chinese market. Before the announcement most people loved Google's products, but many people also feared its size, domination, and what it was doing with all the information it collects. Now Google has revamped its image, and may not even suffer financially, as China may back down and stop having their hackers try as intensively to hack Gmail (apparently the real cause of Google's ire). While some reactions range from </span></span><a href="http://neteffect.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/01/13/doubting_the_sincerity_of_googles_threat"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">skeptical</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> to </span></span><a href="http://www.slate.com/id/2241116/"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">confused</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">, most praise Google's actions, including the same free speech advocates who are scared of Google's expansion. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Google has proved very adept at improving its own image. I wonder how this move will play in China, and how many will notice (the Chinese government, not surprisingly, </span></span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/14/world/asia/14beijing.html?hp"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">blocked</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> news of the announcement). The question is important because much of the world sees the United States as much through our corporations as through the actions of our government. What is the United States' most important export? Democracy and capitalism? Or Levi's, McDonalds, </span></span><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Baywatch</span></span></i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">, and Nike? </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Some countries, like China, take a very proactive role in determining their country's image abroad, making an effort to promote it, build cultural exchanges, and spread their aid toward countries where it needs a positive image. Other countries, like the United States and emulated by India, are willing to let their country's image be the image of their corporations. If the usual image of Americans is of fat, violent polluters with no morals, it is nice to think that other messages about some of our companies will get out as well, especially when those companies make moves that are both the right thing to do, and good for business. It's good to know the Obama Administration has </span></span><a href="http://www.benton.org/node/30379"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">hired</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> some Google talent to help them, and </span></span><a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/0110/Google_briefs_State_on_China_ops.html?showall"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">supports</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> Google's plan to pull out. The government could use some Google savvy in helping manage its image in the world. </span></span></div><div>
</div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-40291137280104168882010-01-08T12:56:00.002-05:002010-01-08T13:39:13.281-05:00Analyzing Underpants: On Intelligence Sharing Problems and Solutions<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">A lot of articles, columns, blogs, and other material is out there analyzing what happened and why the intelligence community was not able to do its job and stop the Christmas Day "underpants bomber." Of course anyone looking for information should read the White House's own </span></span><a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/01/07/release-security-review-conducted-after-failed-christmas-terrorist-attack-0"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">report</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (I've heard the classified version is much harsher). The Washington Post's </span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2010/01/08/GR2010010800170.html?sid=ST2010010703897"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">infographic</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> is quite good in showing how the system was supposed to work. </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">For a good insider account of the difficulties involved, especially with different spellings of non-English names, from former intelligence and friend-of-the-blog Jim Arkaedis read his latest </span></span><a href="http://www.allourmight.com/?p=820"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">post</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">. (Jim's </span></span><a href="http://www.allourmight.com/?p=819"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">post</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> on AQAP is also quite good, though I disagree with him regarding terrorist safe-havens). </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">If you want to follow the finger pointing, Josh Rogin is </span></span><a href="http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/01/07/how_much_did_misspelling_abdulmutallabs_name_matter"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">all over it</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">If you want to talk about solutions Jennifer Sims and Bob Gallucci have a </span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/07/AR2010010703242.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">very sharp piece</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> in the Post today, which echoes some of Malcolm Gladwell's ideas from </span></span><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Blink</span></span></i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', times, serif; font-size: 17px; "><blockquote><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">To win against a networked adversary, the intelligence community must share critical information with decision makers but not always with every element of its own community first. Assembling "puzzles" from many pieces is often necessary for planning and strategy; it takes time and the meticulous management of databases by analytical experts. But for day-to-day operations, decision makers often hold as many or more pieces than intelligence agencies do and certainly know better from moment to moment what knowledge they need to act. In terms of tactical decisions, sharing among intelligence agencies so that an "all source" product can be generated can be a form of hoarding. </span></span><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">It can result in finished analyses that are irrelevant, unhelpful or even harmful to national security. </span></span></i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">[Italics mine]</span></span></blockquote></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-82061406330726476082010-01-08T12:44:00.004-05:002010-01-08T13:34:34.701-05:00Tico Thinking<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">When I was 12 and 13 years old I lived (with my parents) in Costa Rica. The experience helped me deal with other cultures and ways of doing things, and often led to interesting discussions. </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Why do we have to stand in line for everything, and why do you need six notarized forms and two passport-sized photos for any interaction with the government? Wouldn't it be easier to do only wait in one line?</span></span></div><div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Oh, that's gringo thinking.</span></span></i></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Why don't they actually fix the potholes instead of just filling them with gravel?</span></span></div><div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">That's gringo thinking. </span></span></i></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Why doesn't the United States buy fewer tanks and fighter planes and spend the money on schools?</span></span></div><div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Silly, that's tico (as Costa Ricans are known) thinking! </span></span></i></div><div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></i></div><div><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Times </span></span></i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">columnist Nicholas Kristof seems to have discovered the same thing on his recent visit to Costa Rica, and names that choice as a primary reason why ticos are </span></span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/07/opinion/07kristof.html?em"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">the happiest people</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 22px; font-size:15px;"><p></p><blockquote><p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">What sets Costa Rica apart is its remarkable decision in 1949 to dissolve its armed forces and invest instead in education. Increased schooling created a more stable society, less prone to the conflicts that have raged elsewhere in Central America. Education also boosted the economy, enabling the country to become a major exporter of computer chips and improving English-language skills so as to attract American eco-tourists.</span></span></p><p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">I’m not antimilitary. But the evidence is strong that education is often a far better investment than artillery.</span></span></p></blockquote><p></p></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-45584893988711276922010-01-07T14:53:00.005-05:002010-01-07T16:08:10.949-05:00People: the Best Homeland Security<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxvflYpqREKV9i0yHtAwak47r2tzZANwy25iPEuOE-EdQA5QgdGAjo4Ekqn1elWgDBpHwwEZmYM646DTa7tSoNgVhKIVNX1yYQSlF3hGZBo-RTVDMPG341068hzKMvlsSFGMTXRkaut2g/s1600-h/0919line.jpeg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 132px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxvflYpqREKV9i0yHtAwak47r2tzZANwy25iPEuOE-EdQA5QgdGAjo4Ekqn1elWgDBpHwwEZmYM646DTa7tSoNgVhKIVNX1yYQSlF3hGZBo-RTVDMPG341068hzKMvlsSFGMTXRkaut2g/s200/0919line.jpeg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5424107688380734626" /></a>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;">I imagine someone might be reading this on a mobile device as they are in an interminable security line at the airport waiting to go on spring break (they wisely got there early). But know this: the most draconian security measures we are proposing - </span></span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/03/AR2010010301826.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#3333FF;">full-body scans</span></span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;"> and extensive pat downs/strip searches - still would not have caught the Christmas day "Underpants Bomber" </span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;">Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab. </span></span></span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;">
</span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;">I was going to write that because he flew from Nigeria Abdulmutallab wouldn't have gone through a full-body scanner, but it turns out that Nigeria's international airport </span></span></span><a href="http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/59400"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#3333FF;">already has scanners</span></span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;">. It doesn't seem Abdulmutallab was scanned, since as the Truman Project's </span></span></span><a href="http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/80881732.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#3333FF;">Melissa Skorka points out</span></span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;">, the workers in many developing countries' airports are often concerned with things other than safety. But the real story, as Marc Sageman discussed at a Middle East Policy Council </span></span></span><a href="http://mepc.org/forums/caphill.asp"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#3333FF;">event</span></span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;"> today, is that Abdulmutallab carried only about three ounces of explosive, the equivalent of three packets of sugar, and it is extremely unlikely that either a body scan or a pat down would have discovered the packets. As another panelist today mentioned, Yemen now has a very creative bomb maker, and though both the </span></span></span><a href="http://homelandsecuritynewswire.com/saudi-suicide-bomber-hid-ied-his-anal-cavity"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#3333FF;">butt bomb</span></span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;"> and the underpants bomb have failed, he will keep trying. Three sugar packets worth of powder makes me think he could hide it in actual sugar packets, or as tooth powder, or really just about anywhere.</span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;">
</span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;">We'll know more about what exactly led to the breakdown of intelligence in the case of the underpants bomber when the unclassified version of the report is </span></span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/07/AR2010010702310.html?hpid%3Dtopnews&sub=AR"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#3333FF;">released</span></span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;"> later today, but we do know this: our best defense is alert, smart people talking to each other. We need our intelligence community to do its job. The National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) is designed to bring representatives from the various agencies to share information with each other and put their heads together. One person should poke their head up over the cubicle and say "hey, this guy in Nigeria says his son is becoming radical" and another says "hey, I know of a Nigerian posting some radical thoughts online" and a third could say "hmm, the British just revoked a Nigerian's visa. Maybe we should do the same thing." But it didn't seem to work. No wonder people are </span></span></span><a href="http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2010/01/wagons-circle-around-nctc-director-leiter-under-fire.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#3333FF;">clamoring</span></span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;"> for NCTC director Michael Leiter's head. Of course </span></span></span><a href="http://washingtonindependent.com/73167/counterterorrism-center-asigns-eight-or-nine-analysts-to-middle-east"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#3333FF;">the NCTC has bigger problems</span></span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;">, but Leiter has had plenty of time to work on them. </span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;">
</span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;">We also need as much interaction between governments and people in other countries. As much as an Obama Doctrine currently exists, it is based on the idea of smart power, and that means we need to keep our foot on the gas with diplomacy, exchanges, and training. </span></span></span><a href="http://www.dhs.gov/xabout/structure/editorial_0874.shtm"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#3333FF;">DHS' Office of International Affairs</span></span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;"> needs to be fully staffed and step up its mission working on training, cooperation, and increasing security practices around the world. And people need to keep traveling the world and showing the good and productive side of Americans.</span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;">
</span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;">Finally, homeland security is everyone's responsibility. Who became suspicious and subdued Abdulmutallab? Not an air marshall (there wasn't one): other passengers. Same thing for Richard Reid, the shoe bomber. The DC Metro system constantly has announcements to report suspicious packages and the like. An alert and educated public can be our best weapon, since even DHS can hire only so many people. </span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;">
</span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;">DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano said "the system worked" in the aftermath of the attempted bombing, a quote she clearly regrets. Parts of the system didn't work, the parts we pay billions of dollars a year for, and clearly those parts need to work better. But if you include everyone in the system, than the system did work. In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks everyone wanted to help, and many did by donating blood or needed materials. President Bush had an opportunity to tell everyone that they were part of the solution, and that their role was to always be vigilant. Instead he told them to go shopping. Luckily for us many got the message anyway. People are the most important defense against terror. </span></span></span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-46086386188578595042009-12-22T21:30:00.005-05:002009-12-22T22:51:34.595-05:00Federal Contracting: a Plague on Both Your Houses!<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">President Obama signed the $626 billion defense bill recently, and various </span></span><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126144587379801037.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">columnists</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> and </span></span><a href="http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/12/22/defense_spending_im_a_hawk_but_give_me_a_break"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">bloggers</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> have decried what is or is not in the final version, including various ships, planes, and helicopters that are of no use or are vastly over budget. To me just as big a problem is the federal government's use of contractors. I'm not the only one who has noticed: the President himself </span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/20/AR2009122002031.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">asked</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> for $40 billion in contracting costs to be cut over the next two budgets, and </span></span><a href="http://www.cnas.org/node/3871"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">CNAS</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> and others have come out with reports, but more attention needs to be paid.</span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Contractors come in multiple flavors (for the moment I'm not talking about government contracts to buy goods or materials). Some consider themselves "consultants" and swoop in with their MBAs and PowerPoint flow charts from companies like McKinsey or Deloitte, tell the government what they are doing wrong using proprietary jargon, and swoop on to the next project. A second group are essentially mercenaries, like the infamous Xe (formerly Blackwater) and others who serve in and around combat zones, primarily supporting the troops, but frequently overstepping their bounds. I have plenty of problems with those groups, but for now will focus on the third kind of contractors who are, for the most part, seat fillers hired by various agencies to supplement the federal workforce (whether their physical seats are in government buildings or not doesn't really matter, they are intended to supplement or replace federal employees by their mere presence). </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">I've worked as a "seat filling" contractor before, and I can tell you it is far from the most efficient way of doing things. Federal employees may be notorious for being inefficient and not hard working, a reputation that is normally false, but I can tell you that contractors are generally no better. Many if not most contractors actually want federal jobs, but have been unable to fight through the bureaucracy. Because contractors, usually make more than federal employees, and because the company makes overhead on top of their salaries, they don't normally end up being any cheaper than federal employees. The Bush administration wanted a smaller government and the flexibility to have a surge of workers, but the contractor complexes that have sprouted up around Northern Virginia demonstrate the long-term nature of federal seat-filling contracting. As the contracting workforce grows and the federal government remains stagnant the size of each portfolio of contracts administered by an individual federal employee increases drastically, leading to a lack of specificity, oversight, standards, and quality of work. Many of my contractor friends are bored out of their skulls in their cubicles in Northern Virginia because the over-worked federal employee only has so much time to look over their work, give them new projects, or do much of his own work, so the contractors sit burning contract hours slowly, wasting everyone's time. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">The federal government needs to streamline its hiring process and hire the best of these contractors into permanent government service. As the last wave of federal employees starts to retire they will need replacing, so let the new generation start learning on the job. Hiring people who have served as contractors to administer contracts will lead to better performance from both parties. Federal contractors were intended to serve as short term surges for projects. They should actually serve that way rather than as expensive, non-empowered, de facto federal employees who are contracted out simply because they can't be hired quickly enough or to avoid having a bigger government. End the facade, it hurts everyone. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div>
</div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-3609361511055814682009-12-16T17:44:00.005-05:002009-12-16T18:12:14.601-05:00A Tale of Two Speeches<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">President Obama gave two important foreign policy speeches recently, and the opinion pages and blogosphere can't seem to stop talking about them. I didn't want to have my voice be lost in the immediate aftermath, but now that much of the dust has settled I thought I'd add a few thoughts.</span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">The President's long-awaited speech rolling out his new <a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2009/12/obamas-afghan-policy-speech-at.html">Afghanistan strategy</a> pleased almost no one who chose to examine it closely. It took too long, it wasn't detailed enough, it was too specific, some of the details were wrong, he didn't focus on Pakistan enough, he focused too much on Pakistan... Jon Stewart made fun of it for being too much like a speech President Bush could have given. Some bloggers complained that he had conflated the Afghanistan and Pakistani Taliban, and that anyone who doesn't understand the difference couldn't possibly come up with a good strategy. The West Point cadets watching the speech didn't seem to know how to respond until the speech stopped being specific and started going in to broad, soaring generalities and hopeful themes - Obama's specialty. In the days following the speech it turned out that few of the specifics were actually totally true. The troop "surge" may not take place until Fall 2010, and they will only "start" to be pulled out in Summer 2011. The speech failed to be all things to all people, and thus was not well received.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">President Obama's </span></span><a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-acceptance-nobel-peace-prize"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> made up for it in a big way. It was masterfully written and beautifully delivered. Critics called it the best of Obama's career, and certainly the best of his Presidency so far. It spoke truth to the power of the Nobel committee, addressed the oddity of winning a peace prize while leading a nation engaged in two wars, acknowledged previous winners, and defended the use of military force while advancing progressive ideals. It was a perfect encapsulation of the Truman Project worldview - which makes sense since it was written by someone affiliated with the Truman Project. Writers from the </span></span><a href="http://www.progressivefix.com/progressive-values-in-national-security-take-two"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">progressive</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> side to at least the conservative moderation of </span></span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/15/opinion/15brooks.html?em"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">David Brooks</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> loved the speech. About all critics of the speech could say was that it was rambling and disjointed. I loved the speech, but the critics are right. Everyone was happy with it because they could read what they wanted into the speech. Dan Drezner made an </span></span><a href="http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/12/10/the_international_relations_theories_behind_obamas_nobel_speech"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">attempt</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> to map out the various international relations theories referred to in the speech. It was another classic piece of Obama magic: choosing the middle path and creating buy-in from all sides by incorporating their arguments. It made for a powerful speech, but it will be hard to predict his future foreign policy moves based on a speech that left almost every door open. </span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-22073863195741655372009-11-24T14:40:00.006-05:002009-11-24T17:10:42.500-05:00On Paranoid Pakistanis<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYGfoEREBuATOJVHqqPPK-R6VICqgSQEFM5wqbdm4AccBJ4guTifbQS-Rw4bTcx-UOl5ZzDQCAo2fUtY2sIHdSCRSah-2mWmTo6p5UwIeFMVjvW7yUfh1S2sRWz-GC5UPu97hvqy-33io/s1600/get-paranoid-final300.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYGfoEREBuATOJVHqqPPK-R6VICqgSQEFM5wqbdm4AccBJ4guTifbQS-Rw4bTcx-UOl5ZzDQCAo2fUtY2sIHdSCRSah-2mWmTo6p5UwIeFMVjvW7yUfh1S2sRWz-GC5UPu97hvqy-33io/s320/get-paranoid-final300.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5407762777504264514" /></a>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Given half an opportunity, Pakistanis can be some of the most paranoid people on the planet. They tend to fear that India -- or sometimes the United States -- is behind every single bad thing that happens to them. If a Pakistani stubs his toe it was probably an Indian spy who snuck in and made that crack in the sidewalk. Lou Dobbs would be a big hit in Pakistan; maybe he should do a show there rather than running for president in 2012. Ahmed Rashid has a good </span></span><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8369914.stm"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">article</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> up on the BBC News website on conspiracy theories in Pakistan. </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Some people in Pakistan probably should be paranoid. President Zardari should be paranoid; people really are plotting against him, which is understandable given the<a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091124/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan_turbulent_politics"> job he is doing</a>.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">I've heard other crazy theories from Pakistanis ranging from the idea that all U.S. technology, especially nuclear technology, contains a secret "off" switch, so that when our Indian overlords give the order we can secretly send out a radio signal and make all Pakistani military equipment cease to work. Or that the militant bombings in Peshawar and elsewhere are not the work of the Taliban, but instead are the work of Blackwater. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">The last thing you would want to do is give any kind of credibility to those rumors, right? Imagine how crazy Dobbs and the FreeRepublic folks would go if President Obama accidentally mentioned something about going "home" to Kenya, or said something about going to a mosque.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">So who's bright idea was it to </span></span><a href="http://www.thenation.com/doc/20091207/scahill"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">hire</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> <del>Blackwater</del> <del>Xe</del> Total Intelligence Solutions (TIS) to work doing "snatch-and-grabs" based in Karachi, Pakistan? Apparently since we officially can't have our military operating in Pakistan, we'll just outsource it to civilians. Let's just hope none of them are of Indian descent. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Categorize this one as "stupid power." </span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-14620353345282928392009-11-19T16:33:00.004-05:002009-11-19T16:52:31.243-05:00Does The Onion Now Have a Foreign Policy Editor?<div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">That bastion of satire The Onion has been on a roll lately regarding foreign policy. Did they get a new writer or editor with more foreign policy, or is Afghanistan just really easy to mock because no obvious answers exist? Here's a quick round up, but keep your eyes out for others.</span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">"</span></span><a href="http://www.theonion.com/content/infograph/obama_weighs_options_in"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Obama Weighs Options in Afghanistan</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">" -- my favorite is "</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Not only learn the lessons of Vietnam, but apply them as well"</span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">"</span></span><a href="http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/heroin_addicts_pressure"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Heroin Addicts Pressure President to Stay the Course in Afghanistan</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">" </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; "><h2 class="title" style="zoom: 1; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 7px; padding-left: 0px; line-height: 28px; font: normal normal bold 27px/normal Georgia, serif; text-transform: none; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">"</span></span></span><a href="http://www.theonion.com/content/news/afghan_presidential_election_a"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Afghan Presidential Election A Celebration Of All Forms Of Government</span></span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">" -- "</span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Afghanistan has become a shining beacon of democracy, theocracy, autocracy, and authoritarianism in an otherwise troubled region."</span></span></span></span></h2><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Perhaps the best is "</span></span><a href="http://www.theonion.com/content/news/u_s_continues_quagmire_building"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">U.S. Continues Quagmire-Building Effort In Afghanistan</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">"</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">This video of course is similar to my idea about </span></span><a href="http://smartinfluence.blogspot.com/2009/08/call-of-duty-counterinsurgency-how-bout.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Call of Duty: Counterinsurgency</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><object width="480" height="430"><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><param name="movie" value="http://www.theonion.com/content/themes/common/assets/onn_embed/embedded_player.swf?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theonion.com%2Fcontent%2Ffiles%2Fimages%2FMODERN_WARFARE_ARTICLE_11_9.jpg&videoid=99070&title=Ultra-Realistic%20Modern%20Warfare%20Game%20Features%20Awaiting%20Orders%2C%20Repairing%20Trucks"><param name="wmode" value="transparent"><embed src="http://www.theonion.com/content/themes/common/assets/onn_embed/embedded_player.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" wmode="transparent" width="480" height="430" flashvars="image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theonion.com%2Fcontent%2Ffiles%2Fimages%2FMODERN_WARFARE_ARTICLE_11_9.jpg&videoid=99070&title=Ultra-Realistic%20Modern%20Warfare%20Game%20Features%20Awaiting%20Orders%2C%20Repairing%20Trucks"></embed></object><br /><a href="http://www.theonion.com/content/video/ultra_realistic_modern_warfare?utm_source=videoembed">Ultra-Realistic Modern Warfare Game Features Awaiting Orders, Repairing Trucks</a></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Of course the greatest Onion foreign affairs article ever, written just before George W. Bush took office and proving to be all to prophetic, remains "</span></span><a href="http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28784"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Bush: 'Our Long National Nightmare of Peace and Prosperity is Finally Over.'</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">" It gets sadder and more true every time I read it. </span></span></div><div>
</div></span></div></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-45629049542795846632009-11-16T10:47:00.003-05:002009-11-16T11:35:14.322-05:00"Off Ramps" for Afghanistan<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4bR3vUlnJWDlUlao-IYuUXBM6x0JesJxzvLYBn-Mjn66crHK6zq3aQX4LReidMvJfqinHuTh6QN8DnU5jQh531Pi-hABIR3lvVzPRX3lh1_f9raxVlX5S4RniYABPLNYLsfvOLAqJqj0/s1600/mainRoadSign.gif"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 242px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4bR3vUlnJWDlUlao-IYuUXBM6x0JesJxzvLYBn-Mjn66crHK6zq3aQX4LReidMvJfqinHuTh6QN8DnU5jQh531Pi-hABIR3lvVzPRX3lh1_f9raxVlX5S4RniYABPLNYLsfvOLAqJqj0/s320/mainRoadSign.gif" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5404740908007951378" /></a>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">With the "all COIN all the time" crowd calling for 40,000 more troops and years upon years in Afghanistan I'm relieved to know that President Obama is dissatisfied with the current options and is looking for an "off ramp" for Afghanistan. Whether Ambassador Eikenberry's </span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/11/AR2009111127939.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">leaked cables</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> were the catalyst for that kind of thinking or not, I'm glad that the President is looking for a way out. The difference between us and the British or Soviets is that we are not seeking an empire, we do not wish to remain in Afghanistan indefinitely, therefore our end goal must be leaving, and the strategy has to include doing that as soon as possible while preserving our long-term security. </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Steve Coll is always worth reading, so check out his "</span></span><a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/stevecoll/2009/11/what-if-we-fail-in-afghanistan.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">If we fail in Afghanistan</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">" article. I'm not sure I agree with his second point/scenario especially, but it's an interesting read. Coll is far more pessimistic on the consequences of leaving Afghanistan than skeptics like Stephen Walt. Coll and Walt were on different panels at a </span></span><a href="http://www.c-span.org/Watch/Media/2009/10/29/Terr/A/24975/RAND+Forum+on+US+Policy+Afghanistan.aspx"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">RAND discussion</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> on Afghanistan a few weeks ago (Paul Pillar was also excellent), but I would love to have seen them actually debate the issue. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">I am not calling for an immediate withdrawal. I would support sending more troops, as long as it is for a purpose and we have a plan for </span></span><a href="http://www.slate.com/id/2235362/"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">what they will do</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">, but I am very glad that the subject of how and when we can leave is an important part of the discussion. </span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-37469935396806062122009-11-16T10:02:00.005-05:002009-11-16T10:33:10.115-05:00Police and Counterinsurgency, Home and Abroad<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyXHUAFaTnFzd-ih9TnwGVw2Z5kfbSK_RIFr0xTLXOie-vqCEWnhkccK0XT9-P8Gy4cFkqn9PA0nZWRJIHfYPg1w-bEO_alhLnGoXHew0FMHmnsWn8d-i8QxsDBrj-L-7MFQu4QnuK-u8/s1600/vfiles13000.jpg.gif"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 96px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyXHUAFaTnFzd-ih9TnwGVw2Z5kfbSK_RIFr0xTLXOie-vqCEWnhkccK0XT9-P8Gy4cFkqn9PA0nZWRJIHfYPg1w-bEO_alhLnGoXHew0FMHmnsWn8d-i8QxsDBrj-L-7MFQu4QnuK-u8/s320/vfiles13000.jpg.gif" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5404724814550631218" /></a>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Yesterday's Washington Post had an </span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/14/AR2009111400915.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">interesting article</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> on page A3 about students (military officers) from my alma mater, the "elite" </span></span><a href="http://www.nps.edu/"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Naval Postgraduate School</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">, teaching police in Salinas, California "</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">counterinsurgency strategy, bringing lessons from the battlefield to the meanest streets in an American city" in order to combat Salinas' gang problems. </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">I'm all for increased civilian-military interaction and sharing of lessons learned. And I certainly don't count myself as an expert in counterinsurgency tactics or operations. But here's the thing: police are supposed to be good at counterinsurgency. The military has adapted to doing counterinsurgency out of necessity, but they are unsuited to it and would prefer to go back to force-on-force operations. Police officers, both in Salinas and in Iraq and Afghanistan, ideally come from the community, live in the community, are committed long-term, know and win the respect of the local population, and can spot people or events that are out of place and a potential threat. Hopefully that's what the article is trying to say: "The thrust of the plan relies on winning the trust of people. In Salinas, as in Iraq and Afghanistan, the uniformed forces patrolling 'are still viewed as an occupying force,' said Police Chief Louis Fetherolf." </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Even the much-maligned (by me) Michael O'Hanlon seems to recognize that in his <i>Post</i> <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/15/AR2009111502213.html">op-ed</a> today (that IS his point, right? That we need the police to be better in Afghanistan?). </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">So I hope what my former NPS colleagues are telling the Salinas police force is to learn Spanish, hire more Latino police officers, and involve the community. More firepower is not what's needed, in Salinas or Kandahar. </span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-59212837455223808662009-11-10T23:40:00.004-05:002009-12-09T10:11:36.792-05:00Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons: Haven't I Refuted This Before?<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Seymour Hersh has an </span></span><a href="http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/11/16/091116fa_fact_hersh"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">article</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> in </span></span><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">The New Yorker</span></span></i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> asking the tired questions of whether Pakistan's nuclear weapons are safe from capture by al-Qaeda or the Taliban. He asserts that because militants have attacked well-defended Pakistani military facilities, other well-defended facilities, including nuclear locations, could be in danger. </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">If I'm not mistaken a well-defended U.S. military facility, Fort Hood, was just attacked by someone with insider knowledge of security and facilities, but that doesn't mean that anyone outside of Hollywood screenwriters think U.S. nuclear facilities are likely to be attacked or captured by militants. Indian Maoist naxalite militants have attacked government facilities, but no one worries publicly about the security of India's nuclear weapons. Hersh argues that components are most vulnerable when they are being moved. Hmm, you mean like when nuclear parts are accidentally flown across the country, or mistakenly delivered to Taiwan? Didn't the Secretary and Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force get fired for those mistakes not too long ago? Let's discuss reality here.</span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Once again, yes, Pakistan's government is unstable. President "Mr. Ten Percent" Zardari may well be forced out of office in the next six months, but that may well lead to increased stability in Pakistan, not less. The Pakistani military is considered a common player in Pakistani society and politics, and is perhaps the most stable element. The nuclear warheads are stored and secured separately from the triggers and the delivery systems, and the Pakistanis have developed extensive nuclear security systems. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">If anything Pakistan seemed more unstable back in May, when the Taliban had famously crept within 90 miles of the capital, Islamabad. The </span></span><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">New York Times</span></span></i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> </span></span><a href="http://smartinfluence.blogspot.com/2009/05/experts-on-pakistani-nuclear-weapons.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">ran a piece</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> quoting various experts as saying the nuclear stockpile was safe. What has changed since then other than Sy Hersh decided this was a good sensational story to write? He dismisses all the expert opinions he finds that run contrary to his view, because "are Pakistan's nuclear weapons safe? Yes" would be a pretty boring article.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">I imagine I or someone like me will have to refute some sensationalist account about terrorists and Pakistan's nuclear weapons every six months or so for at least several years to come. Of course it's a valid concern and one that should not be ignored, but it is also unlikely, and Pakistan should be given credit for protecting its arsenal. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">
</span></span></div><div>
</div></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-13689780494049935562009-11-10T21:00:00.005-05:002009-11-11T00:00:15.945-05:00Obama's Fort Hood Speech<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">It's hard picking a favorite speech from a president who is both known for his public speaking and has great speechwriters, but his brief remarks at the Fort Hood memorial service this afternoon is one of the best, especially coming the day before Veterans Day. I encourage everyone to take the time to </span></span><a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-memorial-service-fort-hood"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">read</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> or <a href="http://video.nytimes.com/video/2009/11/10/us/politics/1247465620291/obama-at-fort-hood-for-memorial-service.html">watch</a> it. </span></span>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-84827106803596984812009-11-02T18:15:00.005-05:002009-11-02T18:25:07.835-05:00Management Consultant as Foreign Affairs Columnist?<span><span></span></span><span><span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Foreign Policy blogger and Tufts professor Daniel Drezner went to a management consultant conference and </span></span><a href="http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/11/01/ten_timeless_tips_to_becoming_a_management_consultant"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">shared</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> his top ten tips, both on his blog and Twitter. All I could think of was how it sounded just like 90% of Thomas Friedman's <a href="http://www.mcsweeneys.net/2004/4/28ward.html">columns</a>.
</span></span></span></span><blockquote><span><span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">4) In Every Coversation with a Client, Mention Your Last Trip to China. This is tricky, as you have to be casual about it, while still drivng home the point that you are intimately familiar with the world's fastest-growing market. Here are some possible ways to get this point into casual conversation: "I was talking to one of our clients in Shenzhen On Monday, and...""I was sunbathing in Chengdu a week ago...""When I went bass-fishing in Chongqing last month...""A funny thing happened when I went to a cockfight in Harbin on Tuesday....""If, like me, you ever find yourself in Tianjin biting the head off of a live chicken...."
...</span></span></span></span></blockquote><blockquote><span><span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">6) Use Factoids To Distract Amaze Your Audience. To drive home a point that might encounter pushback from the audience, be sure to snap off a statistic that seems related to your point. For example, if you're trying to convince your customers that Western Africa is a more promising market than Western Europe, you can say, "Did you know there are more live births in Nigeria than in W. Europe?" Some other possibilities:"Did you know that in Tokyo, a bicycle is faster than a car for any distance less than 30 miles?""Did you know that the most popular first name in the world is Muhammad?""Did you know that the first product to have a bar code was Wrigleys gum?""Did you know that Jedi is an official religion in Australia?" </span></span></span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></div><div><span><span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">7) Put a Modern Spin on Old Cliches. Example: "To paraphrase Keynes, 'In the long run, we're all liquefie-- I mean, we're all liquid.'"</span></span></span></span></div></blockquote><div><span><span></span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" color: rgb(68, 68, 68); line-height: 15px; font-family:Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:13px;"><p style="padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.25em; margin-top: 0px; "></p></span></div></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-35076766206311572832009-11-02T17:15:00.003-05:002009-11-02T18:15:25.515-05:00Where Does Afghanistan Go From Here?<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">As late as two days ago requests for observers to go monitor the Afghanistan run-off election were passing my email inbox; now President Karzai's challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, has </span></span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/world/asia/03afghan.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">dropped out</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">, cancelling the run-off and handing Karzai a second term he was likely to have won anyway. Wow. Where does that leave the government of Afghanistan? </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Weak and corrupt to be sure, but that's nothing new. News broke last week that Karzai's brother Amed Wali, he of the rapidly growing wallet and probably drug and warlord ties, has </span></span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/28/world/asia/28intel.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">been on the CIA payroll</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> for years. Abdullah said he dropped out because he didn't have confidence the run-off would be any less corrupt than the first election. That's fair, but I also think Abdullah was unprepared to actually lead Afghanistan. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon is </span></span><a href="http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/11/02/daily_brief_karzai_declared_winner_of_afghan_presidential_election_after_runoff_can"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">said to be</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> attempting to negotiate a place for Abdullah in the government, but I'm not holding my breath. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">The run-off was </span></span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/02/world/asia/02assess.html?ref=asia"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">supposed</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> to be another chance to establish some semblance of credibility in the Afghan government. With Karzai still in power without even having to stuff ballot boxes it weakens the U.S. position. We are stuck </span></span><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8339108.stm"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">saying</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> "please be less corrupt and actually try to govern" much like we were stuck for long periods of time asking the Pakistani government to pretty please attack those pesky terrorists hiding in their country. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">All of this makes things more difficult for President Obama's still-debating Afghanistan team. I'd still be debating too, as I have talked to and heard from many smart people who disagree strongly on the best course of action. It's another obstacle in a difficult swamp we are negotiating. It's clear that those calling for a rushed decision, like Dick Cheney, were wrong. We need a well-reasoned strategy to allow us to withdraw as soon as possible (even if that is a few years away) and leave behind as little chaos as possible. </span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-47285824776511016922009-10-18T22:30:00.004-04:002009-12-03T18:10:55.290-05:00Soon is the Winter of Our Afghanistan Discontent<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFpfRFmYbpE9Nf4BCMoP4b4uZ1sy78cpThNbWa37IFkmpHGJ4u4ZQnThgdfsjH4lOeQ_pa6lXMcdA7KtoTQ0mJ2H0oaCmRUBR68k8FIBK3ywIY7Tq8PDiXdC90UOmVZETs3hADtYBZW3M/s1600-h/winter_in_afghanistan.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 138px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFpfRFmYbpE9Nf4BCMoP4b4uZ1sy78cpThNbWa37IFkmpHGJ4u4ZQnThgdfsjH4lOeQ_pa6lXMcdA7KtoTQ0mJ2H0oaCmRUBR68k8FIBK3ywIY7Tq8PDiXdC90UOmVZETs3hADtYBZW3M/s200/winter_in_afghanistan.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5394138459255301874" /></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
The three main stories about South Asia in the recent news all focus on waiting: for President Obama to make a decision on a strategy and troop levels, for the official results of the Afghanistan election, and for the Pakistani Army to finally begin its offensive into South Waziristan. Waiting is not the worst thing in the world; no matter what is decided on any of those matters the fighting will likely slow to a trickle soon, since Afghanistan becomes even more inhospitable and difficult to fight in every winter. </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">President Obama is right to take his time discussing his South Asian strategy with as many advisers as he needs and for as long as it takes. With every passing day the critics and think tankers here inside the Beltway pace across their offices and write more and more op-eds bravely criticizing a war many of them once supported and then argued should be left alone in favor of invading Iraq, but it is worth the time needed to come up with a functional strategy. As Truman Fellow Alex Rossmiller </span></span><a href="http://www.tnr.com/article/world/stalemate"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">points out</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">, the current situation in Afghanistan is not the cliched do-or-die crossroads/critical juncture; we could sustain the current stalemate for many years to come without "losing" or "winning" any more than we currently are. General McChrystal's suspected request of 40,000 additional troops, if approved, would not arrive until around a year from now, and would still fall far, far short of the number needed for a "true" counterinsurgency campaign. Even then, as McChrystal admits, if we don't have an effective partner in the Afghan government even hundreds of thousands of troops spending another decade in Afghanistan would likely do little good.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">The much-delayed results of the Afghanistan election were supposed to finally be announced this weekend, but have been delayed yet again. Enough fraudulent ballots are expected to be thrown out that Karzai will fall short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a run-off. The ideal situation would be for Karzai to accept some sort of power-sharing arrangement situation, but that looks unlikely. Since he has proved to be at best a reluctant partner in actually governing his country, many U.S. leaders would prefer to work around him, but as the recognized leader of Afghanistan that is proving quite difficult. The necessity of propping up and empowering a corrupt, incompetent leader who will only inevitably collapse when we leave is </span></span><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8313423.stm"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">not much incentive</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> for committing more time, money, and personnel. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">After over a month of buildup (both actual military buildup and media hype) this weekend the Pakistan Army finally </span></span><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8296245.stm"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">began</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> its offensive into South Waziristan, the home of the Mehsud clan. Since everyone knew the offensive was coming everyone has had a chance to prepare themselves to flee (an estimated 100,000 people have been displaced so far) or fight. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">The looming winter will allow all parties time to sit around and think. I think the Pakistani military timed their offensive when they did in order to accomplish just enough that the Pakistani Taliban wouldn't be able to regroup and mount a major counter-offensive and to ensure that the military would not be able to overcommit. President Obama's Afghanistan strategy group will not make a decision before the results of the election are clear. The winter lull is a mixed blessing for the Administration, since no major action will be possible. The President's team should avoid getting distracted by the sniping attacks from neoconservatives all winter and focus on determining the best course of action in a region with no good options. </span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-30611930266185590562009-10-06T16:12:00.002-04:002009-10-06T17:07:42.199-04:00The Big Afghanistan Strategy Rendezvous<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">I was at </span></span><a href="http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&um=1&ie=UTF-8&q=972+Ohio+Dr+SW+Washington,+DC+20024&fb=1&geocode=2319008650325764319,38.880590,-77.032882&ei=Eq7LStK9Oo_8sQPo_fSJAQ&sa=X&oi=manybox&resnum=5&ct=14"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">East Potomac Golf Course</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> yesterday afternoon when a bunch of military helicopters flew by overhead. I remarked to my playing companions that it was probably Secretary Gates and Admiral Mullen headed to the White House for the afternoon Afghanistan discussion. They looked at me like I was sharing top secret information rather than </span></span><a href="http://twitter.com/WestWingReport"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">readily available</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> news, but it goes to show that even in DC, where "everyone" is enthralled with the ongoing Afghanistan strategy debate, "everyone" is really just a few of the wonkiest of us. </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">To recap, so far General McChrystal is arguing for an intensive population-centric counterinsurgency strategy, including an increase of probably 40,000 U.S. troops. Vice President Joe Biden continues to advocate for a troop draw down and a focus on counter terrorism and targeting al Qaeda leadership. President Obama has gathered </span></span><a href="http://smartinfluence.blogspot.com/2009/09/new-thinkers-needed-for-afghanistan.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">the usual suspects</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> for regular </span></span><a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2009/10/06/as_obama_faces_afghanistan_dec.html?hpid=topnews"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">discussions </span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">in hopes of coming up with a coherent strategy. While I have been calling for a defined and articulated end goal and strategy since at least several things we introduced as strategies ago, I applaud the effort now as better late than never, assuming in the end we come up with an actual strategy. So what if it took the farce of an Afghan election to cast doubt on the idea of the Afghanistan government taking over smoothly in a few years and keeping Afghanistan stable, at least we're now discussing it.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Last week </span></span><a href="http://www.slate.com/id/2231010/"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Fred Kaplan</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> brought up two key questions the strategy team should answer: </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "></span></span></span></div><blockquote><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">First, is Afghan President Hamid Karzai likely to rally the support of his own people, especially given the massive fraud in the recent election? (If he doesn't rally this support, counterinsurgency is doomed to fail; </span></span><a href="http://www.slate.com/id/2229227/" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(102, 153, 204); outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: initial; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">this, the top U.S. military leaders acknowledge</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">.)</span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Second, given the vast amount of blood, treasure, and time that a COIN campaign requires under the best of circumstances, are the prospective benefits worth the cost?</span></span></span></div></blockquote><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">And today Marc Lynch countered with </span></span><a href="http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/10/06/afpak_debate_day"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">five questions</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> of his own. I think all of those questions are important, and I hope they are being discussed in the room, but my big concern is what the end goal is for Afghanistan. The major difference I see between us and the British and Soviets - and hopefully the reason we can succeed where they failed - is that we do not want to occupy Afghanistan any longer than necessary. The goal is for us to withdraw from an Afghanistan that no longer harbors a threat to the world, and I hope the team takes that long term a view of the problem.</span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">It only added to the turmoil when General McChrystal mentioned that he had only ever talked to President Obama once since taking over, and has advocated for his counterinsurgency campaign (which he falsely calls a strategy) in recent talks and media interviews he has done. This has led to </span></span><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed7/idUSN06420075"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">debates </span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">about whether the field commander should be playing politics and pushing his agenda through the media rather than going through the chain of command. Some have </span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/05/AR2009100502241.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">interpreted </span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">this as pulling a </span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/05/AR2009100502783.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">MacArthur</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">, others have </span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/05/AR2009100502705.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">defended</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> him. Obama has yet to pull a Truman in '51 - though he would be justified since McChrystal to me is undermining his Commander in Chief and clearly has said his piece - but was </span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/05/AR2009100500631.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">smacked down</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> by Secretary Gates. McChrystal was put in place over General McKiernan because he could supposedly think in bigger and more flexible ways, but so far only seems to follow the </span></span><a href="http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawama"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">COIN </span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">orthodoxy. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">I'm glad the Afghanistan strategy debate is happening, both behind closed doors and out in the public. It's about bloody time, and by that I mean it's about eight years too late. But McChrystal needs to contribute through the chain of command, the way he has his entire career. I know he's an unconventional warrior, but he can't ambush the President. The principals need to go into the room and spend as much time as necessary, but when they come out they need to speak with one voice, believe it, and execute it. If McChrystal can't get on board if the decision doesn't go his way he will need to be sent home. </span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-55202823075508747362009-10-06T14:46:00.004-04:002009-10-06T15:13:08.341-04:00Twisted Logic on Pakistan's Nukes<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigQvETZxVZYMLAE8bVyxBFlYHIN6Wy2uaytAjNftEqt_2VOnhocr3Q8LRxWtZiZ29f9nbtABYAGrUKmsNQcVgRrbrKxSOoL1P85OtXkJpVQONNQ7EQfqKz3Wqh6lSPQTvou9vQuQ-kUEM/s1600-h/sawyer-head-scratcher.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 150px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigQvETZxVZYMLAE8bVyxBFlYHIN6Wy2uaytAjNftEqt_2VOnhocr3Q8LRxWtZiZ29f9nbtABYAGrUKmsNQcVgRrbrKxSOoL1P85OtXkJpVQONNQ7EQfqKz3Wqh6lSPQTvou9vQuQ-kUEM/s200/sawyer-head-scratcher.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5389566391205233346" /></a>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Someone help me understand this: the biggest danger in South/Central Asia is al Qaeda getting its hands on one or more of Pakistan's nuclear weapons. Al Qaeda's leadership and many of their fighters are currently in Pakistan. Therefore the argument is we should send 40,000 more troops to Afghanistan? I'm not sure I follow the logic chain. Assuming we failed and largely pulled out of Afghanistan, and assuming the Taliban (whose leaders are also primarily in Pakistan) re-take control of much of Afghanistan, and assuming the Taliban welcome al Qaeda back and provide them the oft-mentioned "safe haven" (and none of those assumptions are sure things by the way), they would then be MORE likely to attack Pakistan's nuclear facilities? </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">When the Taliban famously advanced into the Swat valley, within 90 miles of the capital Islamabad, I </span></span><a href="http://smartinfluence.blogspot.com/2009/05/taliban-will-not-take-over-pakistan.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">argued </span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">against the doom sayers, saying Pakistan was not about to collapse. Now the Pakistani military has largely driven the Taliban from Swat and is preparing for an offensive in South Waziristan, home to much of the Taliban leadership. Drone strikes have successfully taken out many leaders, including Baitullah Mehsud (leading to this </span></span><a href="http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/3868251-mr-drone-you-are-the-real-triumphant"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">lovely </span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">ditty). Pakistan was not about to collapse then, and is not about to collapse or give up its nuclear weapons now. Pakistan's nuclear weapons are safe, and should not be used as a bureaucratic pawn in the strategic debate. I'm all for a vigorous debate on goals and strategies, but let's apply a few sober standards of logic to this strategic conversation. </span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-81912956309993301822009-09-30T16:09:00.002-04:002009-09-30T16:20:42.896-04:00CIA's Climate Change Center<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">For those of you still in doubt about the link between national security and climate change - </span></span><a href="http://www.operationfree.net/home/"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">natural security</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> as some have dubbed it - the Central Intelligence Agency, not best known for cutting edge innovation, has opened a new </span></span><a href="https://cia.gov/news-information/press-releases-statements/center-on-climate-change-and-national-security.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Center on Climate Change and National Security</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">. It seems to be mostly to predict when and where natural disasters or natural resource shortages will cause instability, but it's a start. </span></span>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-75605033282840170982009-09-28T09:38:00.003-04:002009-09-28T10:16:30.606-04:00New Thinkers Needed for Afghanistan<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMO7YG5xhLIunvpcsnkv5_PB58-2YR5Fo5MCXJiFqq4A-T7VG-QRiAGLxGqyvKmbsuNIU-nmpgoroBRVxWQ41rnykBs3TGJt7NjhNYcdH0Uem0xN496dH0tE-aPasx8jNMKNrm7qvEOCo/s1600-h/outside-the-box.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 143px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMO7YG5xhLIunvpcsnkv5_PB58-2YR5Fo5MCXJiFqq4A-T7VG-QRiAGLxGqyvKmbsuNIU-nmpgoroBRVxWQ41rnykBs3TGJt7NjhNYcdH0Uem0xN496dH0tE-aPasx8jNMKNrm7qvEOCo/s200/outside-the-box.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5386521763177261826" /></a>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Let me get this straight: what we're doing in Afghanistan is not working; the President has been </span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/26/AR2009092602685.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">presented with options</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">, basically double down or go for a minimalist approach; the leading commander in Afghanistan says we could </span></span><a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=5345009n"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">be there for 100 years and still fail</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">; we're promising </span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/27/AR2009092703155.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">continued support</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> for Karzai even though the main problem is that Afghanistan's central government is corrupt, incompetent, and generally refuses to pull any weight; and the </span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/25/AR2009092502009.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">main argument</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> for adding additional troops is that we tried the alternative (a "counter terrorism" approach) under Bush and it didn't work. Really? Only two options exist? The President is right to think about this one long and hard.</span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Where are the real alternative ideas? Better yet, where are the alternative thinkers, preferably someone under 50 who has actually been on the ground in Afghanistan without a huge protective escort. Gates, Jones, Petraeus, McChrystal, Holbrooke, Clinton, Riedel... all over 50. Is it any wonder that all of their reviews said basically the same thing -- Afghanistan is critical, but we can still win -- without offering a real strategy or real solutions? </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Give me someone really outside the box. How about we make </span></span><a href="http://www.registan.net/"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Joshua Foust</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> think of solutions instead of </span></span><span><span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">criticizing others. Let's get </span></span><a href="http://www.slate.com/id/2229227/"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Fred Kaplan</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> in the room. Why isn't someone asking </span></span><a href="http://www.newamerica.net/people/katherine_tiedemann/recent_work"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Katherine Tiedemann</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> for new ideas? Ask </span></span><a href="http://craigmmullaney.com/content/index.asp"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Craig Mullaney</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> what he would do. Maybe </span></span><a href="http://www.gregmortenson.com/welcome.php"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Greg Mortenson</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> could add an outsider's opinion of what to do. For all the talk about how the Obama Administration is full of young go-getters his Afghanistan team is full of old retreads with the same old ideas. I'm far from the first person to say we aren't fighting an eight-year war in Afghanistan, we're fighting a one-year war eight times in a row. You think going back to the same ideas is going to break that cycle?</span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 15px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> </span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 15px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 15px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Fighting in Afghanistan will die down in a few weeks, as it does every winter. That gives us the luxury of a real debate for new ideas. We don't need another strategic review, we need a real strategy, and we should include new thinkers and new ideas in the debate. </span></span></span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-80445325702394065102009-09-21T09:25:00.005-04:002009-09-21T11:19:41.310-04:00Worse Decision Making: Redskins or the Afghanistan Team?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCU083n-qiQXYWOTNzPEDFJfIgio5V68-jxjnjKvjXuYieN3b48fSya5r3_5BGrKIwZQske01Sl41fwrBaGJs-COA3HzLnWDI600jsbnEzMqLBjBeAKc30yYZqi7pJbZt7uHlMbDYJLsY/s1600-h/wapo.JPG"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 170px; height: 200px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCU083n-qiQXYWOTNzPEDFJfIgio5V68-jxjnjKvjXuYieN3b48fSya5r3_5BGrKIwZQske01Sl41fwrBaGJs-COA3HzLnWDI600jsbnEzMqLBjBeAKc30yYZqi7pJbZt7uHlMbDYJLsY/s200/wapo.JPG" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5383939268092190834" /></a>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><i>The Washington Post</i> headline this morning blared out: "</span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/20/AR2009092002920.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">McChrystal: More Forces or 'Mission Failure</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">;'" I wished they had used the headline from below the fold (about the Redskins): "</span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/20/AR2009092002897.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">First and Unsure of the Goal</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">." </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">It was inevitable that General McChrystal's classified review of the situation in Afghanistan would be </span></span><a href="http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/Assessment_Redacted_092109.pdf"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">leaked</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">. It was almost as inevitable that the review, as Joshua Foust put it, contains "</span></span><a href="http://www.registan.net/index.php/2009/09/21/the-mcchrystal-review-yawn/"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">absolutely nothing new</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">." The most disturbing aspect of the review is that it talks about the "counterinsurgency strategy." Our commander in Afghanistan thinks that counterinsurgency IS the strategy. Shouldn't that be a red flag? McChrystal's expertise is supposedly thinking unconventionally, but his review is extremely inside the (counterinsurgency) box in its thinking: more troops, more resources, more time, </span></span><a href="http://washingtonindependent.com/60216/now-that-the-mcchrystal-strategy-review-has-leaked"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">full speed ahead</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">At last week's excellent Foreign Policy and New America Foundation event "</span></span><a href="http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/09/17/brother_to_brother"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Covering Afghanistan</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">:</span></span><a href="http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/09/17/brother_to_brother"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">A Conversation On How It Looks From the Ground</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">" </span></span><a href="http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/09/17/3b_or_not_3b"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Steve Coll</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> expressed optimism that President Obama's team was taking a full and deep assessment of the strategic rationale for being in Afghanistan (look for my question and his answer near the end of the video). I'm still more skeptical that new thinking will emerge, though I'm slightly more hopeful after reading the <i>Post's</i> </span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/20/AR2009092002878.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">other article</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> today. The key quote is: </span></span></div><div><blockquote><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">The president, one adviser said, is "taking a very deliberate, rational approach, starting at the top" of what he called a "logic chain" that begins with setting objectives, followed by determining a methodology to achieve them. Only when the first two steps are completed, he said, can the third step -- a determination of resources -- be taken.</span></span></blockquote></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">And he should work in that order. It's good to hear that starting to happen, although perhaps it would have been nice to start the process four or five "strategic reviews" ago, or during the transition, or in 2002. It remains to be seen who has a plan to score a touchdown first, the national security team or the Redskins. Better late than never? </span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-74544980364542756052009-09-17T10:22:00.005-04:002009-09-17T10:45:31.361-04:00Overstating my Power? bin Laden, You're On Notice!<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYwzShrDy0JyYDPqjwPnTGQ_tpx_wG17t9A1Nv_rUIQQkL7zZmaFfY2Ic1bBP22KaGdVwsb2ahUv8A9rXcqGHCEPQmwGe6qHn-YZkbaddmMx6EzeB-8O3jL_nA3KCy9uaJ2lvn2WkX5m4/s1600-h/Osama_bin_Laden_target.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 199px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYwzShrDy0JyYDPqjwPnTGQ_tpx_wG17t9A1Nv_rUIQQkL7zZmaFfY2Ic1bBP22KaGdVwsb2ahUv8A9rXcqGHCEPQmwGe6qHn-YZkbaddmMx6EzeB-8O3jL_nA3KCy9uaJ2lvn2WkX5m4/s200/Osama_bin_Laden_target.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5382446897332307458" /></a>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Apparently expressing my frustration that we have yet to catch or kill a given terrorist is enough to get said terrorist killed. Do the world's terrorist-hunting teams all read Smart Influence and get motivated when they see me write about their prey? First I </span></span><a href="http://smartinfluence.blogspot.com/2009/07/predator-drone-groundhog-day.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">expressed my frustration</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> that we had shot at Baitullah Mehsud repeatedly without hitting him and lo and behold we </span></span><a href="http://smartinfluence.blogspot.com/2009/08/picking-up-bits-of-mehsud.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">hit him</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">. Last week <a href="http://smartinfluence.blogspot.com/2009/09/wrong-answer-for-indonesian-terror.html">Jamie Morgan's guest post</a> talked about the right and wrong ways to fight </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Noordin M. Top's terrorist group in Indonesia; I'm pretty sure </span></span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/18/world/asia/18indo.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">killing Top</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> is part of the right way!</span></span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color:#333333;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">So who's left? Lots of people, for sure, but for now, Osama bin Laden, you're on notice (copyright Stephen Colbert)! I'm officially sick of our inability to capture or kill you. Can't we just look where they are sending his record label checks from his new </span></span><a href="http://attackerman.firedoglake.com/2009/09/15/usamabinladotune/"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Auto-Tuned</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> album? </span></span></span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-90655840650100140152009-09-16T14:09:00.003-04:002009-09-16T14:40:38.314-04:00Recycled Afghanistan Stories and Ideas<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjczCej_8dgRK7JfURNKpD8Naqzy62MT__mTpEU4nhCfclvlAZN1RGJkeBtOhHM9IHJTfzN9UUPZZS9907xkuOOiCq5SwKhdfrToMVqZhKi4wgy1Zzwsb1Bsb2cbmT3-gE5zMU5_5jQvJk/s1600-h/recycle_symbol_with_earth_photo.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 171px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjczCej_8dgRK7JfURNKpD8Naqzy62MT__mTpEU4nhCfclvlAZN1RGJkeBtOhHM9IHJTfzN9UUPZZS9907xkuOOiCq5SwKhdfrToMVqZhKi4wgy1Zzwsb1Bsb2cbmT3-gE5zMU5_5jQvJk/s200/recycle_symbol_with_earth_photo.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5382136451851073250" /></a>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">I haven't written much not because I had nothing to say, but rather to avoid getting caught up in the tornado of voices, especially on Afghanistan. The news all seems recycled, and so do the ideas. </span></span><div><ul><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Afghanistan is corrupt and the election was likely stolen. We knew that was the case, and we knew the elections would probably be stolen. </span></span></li><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Both </span></span><a href="http://www.newsweek.com/id/215318"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Fareed Zakaria</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> and </span></span><a href="http://www.slate.com/id/2228414/"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Fred Kaplan</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> had the same brilliant idea that we should simply throw money at the problem by bribing everyone and their brother in Afghanistan. </span></span></li><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Paul Pillar </span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/15/AR2009091502977.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">sums up</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> the "safe haven" debate nicely, but it's nothing I, or others didn't say. </span></span></li><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Another smart, young officer, Joseph Kerns Goodwin, returned from Afghanistan to </span></span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/16/opinion/16goodwin.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">tell us how bad</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> the situation is on the ground, which we will likely ignore. </span></span></li><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">A draft of the metrics was </span></span><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/09/16/evaluating_progress_in_afghanistan_pakistan"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">released </span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">today, and while it appears to be thoughtful and contain a list of good things to measure, it lacks any actual numbers. Don't worry, apparently Afghanistan is like kindergarten, we can keep trying as many reviews and metrics as it takes to get it right. For as long as I've waited for the metrics you might think they would get me excited, but nope, nothing.</span></span></li><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">The COIN crowd keeps arguing that COIN is awesome and the solution to everything and ignoring the lack of a strategy that COIN is supposed to help implement. They are even having a big </span></span><a href="http://www.regonline.com/builder/site/default.aspx?EventID=713459"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">COIN conference</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> to talk about how important COIN is. Fun! (would they seem even nerdier if we called them </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numismatics">numismatists</a>?</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">) </span></span></li><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Even Osama bin Ladin's message seemed phoned in. "Death to America and Israel, blah blah blah." (although at least one blogger has promised to Auto-Tune the tape; maybe that can spice it up.) </span></span></li></ul><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Is it the economy? Is there a down market for ideas right now? Even I feel repetitive: Pakistan is not going to collapse despite the </span></span><a href="http://www.registan.net/index.php/2009/09/16/pakistans-army-brings-the-ultraviolenc/"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">heavy-handed</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> Pakistani military; we need an actual strategy in Afghanistan; we need to work on our smart power; etc, etc. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">I'm all for recycling, but this is ridiculous. Wake me up when you're ready to have a non-circular debate. </span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-83638962004955708632009-09-09T12:05:00.003-04:002009-09-09T12:16:15.158-04:00Wrong Answer for Indonesian Terror<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPnXcTW1_uVTcFArDHQeNC6A5YwFa2jd-1d5Fj86qzgEP6sXSKrrBJFV5nzI6YtZ5gI8b1RVPezWb2PLTnNiL1sO0hg64a_ufjPgoBmhmsv_2h1GLrxRx8cWCZnYstcDOSokKG3h8dPzs/s1600-h/r414141_1960816.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 150px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPnXcTW1_uVTcFArDHQeNC6A5YwFa2jd-1d5Fj86qzgEP6sXSKrrBJFV5nzI6YtZ5gI8b1RVPezWb2PLTnNiL1sO0hg64a_ufjPgoBmhmsv_2h1GLrxRx8cWCZnYstcDOSokKG3h8dPzs/s200/r414141_1960816.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5379501314935200002" /></a>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-style: italic; line-height: 18px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Editor's Note: The following is a guest post by Jamie Morgan. The views expressed are her own.</span></span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';color:#333333;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><i><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Indonesian officials announced a plan to tighten anti-terrorist laws, which would allow the government to detain suspects for up to two years. The government claims this will allow them to </span></span><a href="http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&pagename=Zone-English-News/NWELayout&cid=1252187883173&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">get more in line with the laws of Western nations</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">. (Are two year detention allowances standard in Western nations now?) Additionally, several of the </span></span><a href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/08/31/govt-wants-terrorism-law-amended.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">senior-level government Ministers</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> are seeking an amendment to a terrorism investigation law that would allow non-police forces, including the Indonesian Military (TNI), to conduct anti-terror investigations. </span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">All of this is disconcerting for two reasons. First, we are talking about a country that just emerged from a brutal dictatorship 11 years ago. The military was the major instrument of former President Suharto to control the population during his rule, and expanding the military’s powers such a short time after his fall does not send a good message to the population, nor is it a good idea for the fledgling democracy.</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Second, and possibly more importantly for the rest of the world, expanding the amount of time the Indonesian government can legally hold terrorism suspects without charge is not going to do anything for its fight against Noordin M. Top’s terrorist group. It actually might harm it. The government needs to focus on identifying the root causes of support for Top’s group among certain areas of the Indonesian population, rather than inflame public opinion against it. The International Crisis Group </span></span><a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/indonesia/b95_indonesia___noordin_tops_support_base.pdf"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">reports</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> that support among the local population, and even among the less militant terrorist group Jemmah Islamiyah (JI), is not high for Top’s extremist faction. However, if Top’s faction is allowed to continue to infiltrate Islamic boarding schools, it will continue to find the few supporters it needs to plan operations like the July 17 hotel bombing in Jakarta. </span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Recent revelations connecting Top’s group and various extremist groups in the </span></span><a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/indonesia/b95_indonesia___noordin_tops_support_base.pdf"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">Middle East</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> and </span></span><a href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/09/07/jibril-received-military-training-ji-activists-police.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;">South Asia</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:medium;"> make all of this even more alarming. Unfortunately, given the lack of general media attention on this issue, I am not hopeful for improvement anytime soon.</span></span></p></i></span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4311597677177027680.post-16980799536274955702009-09-08T22:33:00.003-04:002009-09-08T23:35:38.886-04:00The Afghanistan Genie: Wish Three<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcgQ-3kYD3ogf4spm8TPeIEh-p16R9CPsKaZc-9b1F3EuehWUhuBJEmgjvIQdm20nz9Ya-X29BuGtVbcaX-6ZE-bJCoMlxttGG3pG6glbbsT4lmIFBwDtv2r5i-Q8TgSjkMd0HOMb3rUs/s1600-h/ist2_6162253-smoking-genie-lamp.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 150px; height: 200px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcgQ-3kYD3ogf4spm8TPeIEh-p16R9CPsKaZc-9b1F3EuehWUhuBJEmgjvIQdm20nz9Ya-X29BuGtVbcaX-6ZE-bJCoMlxttGG3pG6glbbsT4lmIFBwDtv2r5i-Q8TgSjkMd0HOMb3rUs/s200/ist2_6162253-smoking-genie-lamp.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5379306140292847090" /></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
The war in Afghanistan is a funny thing. Who ever thought that </span></span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/opinion/06kristof.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Nicholas Kristof</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">, </span></span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/opinion/06friedman.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Thomas Friedman</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">, </span></span><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/31/AR2009083102912.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">George Will</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">, and </span></span><a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/08/28/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry5272036.shtml"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Cindy Sheehan</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> would all agree on something? For that matter, who thought that a </span></span><a href="http://www.foreignpolicyi.org/node/11817"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">band of neocons</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> including Sarah Palin and I would basically agree? </span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">But at a time when our presence in Afghanistan is being compared to everything from Vietnam to the </span></span><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/09/04/afghanistan_is_the_new_afghanistan"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">Soviet</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> invasion of Afghanistan (ignoring the </span></span><a href="http://smartinfluence.blogspot.com/2009/08/if-afghanistan-was-vietnam-wed-be.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">many obvious differences</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">) hope and optimism can spring from the most unlikely places. We were all waiting on General McChrystal's strategic review, which apparently will </span></span><a href="http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/09/01/daily_brief_afghan_strategy_review_delivered_to_pentagon"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">not be released publicly</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">. But Laura Rozen, in her job over at Politico, </span></span><a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/0909/Primary_sources_US_government_document_lays_out_Afghanistan_strategy_.html?showall"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">unearthed</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> a gem dated August 10th entitled "</span></span><a href="http://www.politico.com/static/PPM130_civ-mil_plan_afghanistan_090907.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">United States Government Integrated Civilian-Military Campaign for Support to Afghanistan</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">." Wow. Why didn't THIS receive more publicity? A coordinated approach from McChrystal and U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Eikenberry, what a concept. The plan seems very well thought out, I'm highly impressed. I challenge anyone to read the plan and not be more optimistic than they were before. It leans very heavily on counterinsurgency theory, but it doesn't make the mistake so many Beltway think tankers do of equating COIN with actual strategy. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">You may recall that I first </span></span><a href="http://smartinfluence.blogspot.com/2009/07/predator-drone-groundhog-day.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">wished</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> we would actually hit Baitullah Mehsud with a Predator drone strike after so many tries, and with my </span></span><a href="http://smartinfluence.blogspot.com/2009/08/baitullah-mehsud-dead-now-for-my-second.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">second wish</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> asked for actual metrics for success in Afghanistan (and Pakistan). Well guess what? The "Integrated Civ-Mil Campaign" plan contains metrics! Not the National Security Council's metrics, set to be delivered to Congress by September 24th, but pretty good ones. The loquacious Spencer Ackerman has a very nice </span></span><a href="http://washingtonindependent.com/58016/eikenberry-and-mcchrystal-are-setting-actual-metrics-for-afghanistan"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">write up</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';"> of the metrics. </span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">
</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">So what should I wish for with my third wish? A job on the National Security Council? Fifteen minutes alone in a room with Holbrooke to try to talk sense to him? Those seem in the realm of possibility; my other option--magically having the personnel for an actual "</span></span><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/09/08/reality_check_human_terrain_teams"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">civilian surge</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'times new roman';">"--does not. </span></span></div>Robin J. Walkerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18192038071298609079noreply@blogger.com0